News & Analysis
Markets in September 2026
September 2026 market newsletter: the three numbers that moved markets, how assets and the Tamra portfolio have performed this year, and what it means for your investments.
September's three biggest numbers, and what they mean for your investments.
September markets: what moved them
US stocks went in different directions in September: the NASDAQ rose 3.2% on the back of technology companies, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, as the cost of borrowing in the United States climbed to its highest level in five years.
Artificial intelligence: AMD passes one trillion dollars
AMD, the US company that designs the processors and chips powering computers and data centres, is one of the main competitors of Nvidia and Intel. During September its share price rose about 30%, pushing its market value past one trillion dollars, as investors grew more optimistic about demand for AI technology.
The impact of this wave reaches the wider global economy. The International Monetary Fund says investment in AI infrastructure is supporting growth today, and that productivity gains could lift potential global growth by between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points a year over the long term.
What does it mean for you? The impact of AI investment is already showing up in company sales and profits.
Interest rates: the first US rate hike since 2023
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Because the riyal is pegged to the dollar, Saudi interest rates usually move in the same direction.
What does it mean for you? Returns on your emergency portfolio may rise, and so may the cost of financing.
Oil: touches $107, then pulls back
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude touched $107 a barrel amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, then fell back as geopolitical tensions eased. But the pressure spread to diesel, which hit record levels in the United States as supply was disrupted and some refineries went offline.
What does it mean for you? The effect of oil swings doesn't stop at the price of a barrel. Diesel powers trucks and machinery, and it's hard to cut back on quickly even when it gets more expensive. So transport and production costs can stay high even after oil falls, and feed through to the prices of what you buy, which can keep inflation pressure in place and delay rate cuts.
Asset performance in 2026: markets and the Tamra portfolio year to date
Returns from 1 January to 30 September 2026:
| Asset | Return |
|---|---|
| Emerging markets | ▲ 21.4% |
| Tamra Aggressive Portfolio (total return) | ▲ 15.8% |
| US equities | ▲ 11.8% |
| Developed markets | ▲ 10.7% |
| Global real estate | ▲ 4.9% |
| Saudi equities | ▼ -0.5% |
| Global sukuk | ▼ -1.1% |
| Gold | ▼ -3.9% |
Why did gold fall?
Gold doesn't generate any income on its own. With higher interest rates, deposits and sukuk now return between 5% and 6%, which makes holding gold less attractive. A stronger dollar and rising geopolitical tensions added to the pressure.
The gap between the best- and worst-performing assets in the table above is more than 25%, which shows how hard it is to predict which asset will do best next. That's why our multi-asset solutions, such as the Aggressive Portfolio, combine different asset classes, designed to deliver balanced performance across economic cycles and market conditions.
Tamra's view: Saudi Arabia ranks first in the world for digital connectivity
Saudi Arabia topped the 2026 ICT Development Index, published by the International Telecommunication Union, with a score of 99.8 out of 100, against a global average of 79. Five Gulf countries made the top ten.
ICT Development Index 2026 (score out of 100):
| Rank | Country | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saudi Arabia | 99.8 |
| 2 | UAE | 98.8 |
| 3 | Estonia | 98.5 |
| 4 | Finland | 98.4 |
| 5 | Kuwait | 98.4 |
| 6 | Qatar | 98.4 |
| 7 | Denmark | 98.2 |
| 8 | Bahrain | 98.0 |
| 10 | United States | 97.9 |
| 28 | China | 94.4 |
| — | Global average | 79 |
What does it mean for you? Better digital infrastructure makes it easier to reach government and banking services, and you feel that in everyday life: you can open an account and manage your investments from your phone, without visiting a branch. That is the heart of what we do at Tamra Capital: giving you easy access to investing, from your phone, with any amount.
Tamra summary: the month in brief
- Interest rates: low-risk investments are earning good returns again.
- Oil: a single headline can move prices within days, and no one can predict it.
- Artificial intelligence: a large share of this year's gains came from a single sector.
Diversifying across markets and assets spares you from trying to predict what happens next, and that is how we manage your portfolio.
Economic calendar: key dates in October
- 2 October – US jobs data (released): only 29,000 jobs were added, making a rate hold in October more likely.
- 13 October – US earnings season begins: the big banks will be first to report.
- 14 October – US inflation data: higher inflation could raise the chance of another rate hike.
- 28 October – Federal Reserve rate decision: another hike or a hold will shape borrowing costs and market direction.
- 29 October – PCE index: one of the main indicators the Fed uses to decide the next month's rate.
