News & Analysis
Markets in October 2026
October 2026 market newsletter: the numbers that moved markets, how assets have performed this year and in October, and what it means for your investments.
October's biggest numbers, and what they mean for your investments.
October markets: what moved them
2026 continues to be a strong year for investors, with gains of more than 10% for global equities and exceptional earnings growth, despite a pause in technology stocks in late October.
Markets: a temporary pause in a strong year
Stocks keep posting strong gains, with US equities up 11.7% since the start of the year, even though technology stocks fell in the last two days of October: the NASDAQ 100 dropped about 7% as investors increasingly questioned when spending on artificial intelligence will pay off.
What does it mean for you? Pullbacks are normal even in strong years. This one reflects questions about when AI will deliver returns, not weaker earnings, and diversification keeps any single sector from dictating your portfolio's results.
Artificial intelligence: Anthropic nears what could be the largest listing in history
Anthropic, the developer of the Claude models, filed on 26 October for an initial public offering ahead of listing its shares on the NASDAQ, at a valuation reported to be between 1.5 and 2 trillion dollars, after generating revenue of 16.3 billion dollars in the first half of the year.
What does it mean for you? AI now has real revenue, and a diversified portfolio gives you the chance to benefit from the growth of the technology sector.
Inflation and yields: higher yields boost your portfolio's income
US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, driven by gasoline prices, while food prices fell 0.1% and core inflation stayed below 3%.
In fixed income, the 10-year US Treasury yield passed 5.3%, its highest since 2002, before falling back below 5%. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on the strength of growth, with the possibility of raising them again in December.
What does it mean for you? Higher yields give sukuk more income, and as yields later fell, sukuk prices rose, returning to a positive return in October despite the volatility in stocks.
Corporate earnings: US companies grow about 29%
With about 60% of S&P 500 companies having reported, US corporate earnings kept their momentum, rising more than 29% year on year and posting growth above 25% for the third quarter in a row, with broad participation across sectors.
What does it mean for you? Earnings are the real driver of markets over the long term, and their strong growth reflects a resilient economy that supports your investments.
Asset performance in 2026: markets year to date and in October
Total return to 30 October:
| Asset | Year to date | October |
|---|---|---|
| Emerging markets | ▲ 13.8% | ▼ -8.2% |
| US equities | ▲ 11.7% | ▼ -1.1% |
| Developed markets | ▲ 11.3% | ▼ -0.6% |
| Global real estate | ▲ 7.6% | ▲ 3.5% |
| Saudi equities | ▼ -2.2% | ▼ -4.5% |
| Global sukuk | ▼ -0.4% | ▲ 0.9% |
| Gold | ▼ -10.2% | ▼ -7.0% |
Emerging markets: the best performer despite October's fall
Despite falling 8.2% in October, emerging markets keep their lead for the year, up 13.8%.
Diversification proved its worth: global real estate rose 3.5% and sukuk 0.9%, softening the impact of falling stocks and gold. That is the approach behind our portfolios, combining different markets and sectors.
Tamra explains: what is an initial public offering (IPO), and how are companies valued before they list?
An initial public offering is when a private company offers its shares to the public for the first time, to fund its growth or to give its early investors a chance to sell part of their stakes.
How is a company valued? Market value = share price × number of shares. Fast-growing companies are often valued with a revenue multiple: the company's value divided by its annual revenue.
A hypothetical example: Anthropic generated revenue of 16.3 billion dollars in 6 months, or about 33 billion dollars a year, which means a 2 trillion dollar valuation is about 60 times its revenue.
What does it mean for you? A multi-asset portfolio lets you benefit from the growth of promising companies without concentrating risk in a single company.
The steps of an IPO
- Prospectus: a document that discloses the company's financial statements and risks.
- Roadshow: management meets investors to gauge demand and set the price range.
- Pricing and allocation: the final price is set and shares are allocated to subscribers.
- Listing and lock-up period: trading begins, and major shareholders are often barred from selling for a set period.
Tamra summary: the month in brief
- Corporate earnings: growth of about 29% confirms the strength of the US economy.
- Fixed income: higher yields make sukuk more attractive as a source of income.
- Artificial intelligence: investors asking for proof that spending pays off is a sign the sector is maturing.
Short-term volatility is a normal part of investing, and focusing on diversification and long-term investing is the foundation of sustainable growth.
Economic calendar: key dates in November
- 3 November – US midterm elections: held midway through the presidential term, they decide control of Congress. Any volatility around them is usually temporary, because markets follow earnings over the long term.
- 6 November – US jobs data and unemployment rate: 65,000 jobs are expected to be added, against 29,000 in the previous reading, with unemployment at 4.2%.
- 10 November – US inflation data: a rise could make another Fed rate hike more likely.
- 17 November – Retail sales: a gauge of how strongly US consumers are spending.
